The $1.6 Trillion Question Facing Sport’s Leaders

Coca-Cola Arena, Dubai

Climate change and physical inactivity are often discussed as social issues. In sport, they are quickly becoming financial ones. New analysis suggests they could threaten more than $1.6 trillion in future earnings.

Sport has always dealt with risk. Injuries, weather, form and fortune are part of the game. What is changing is the scale and predictability of the threats facing the industry itself.

According to Oliver Wyman, climate disruption and rising inactivity could put $1.6 trillion of future sports revenue at risk. This is not a distant scenario. It is already unfolding.

Extreme heat is forcing organisers to rethink scheduling. Winter sports are struggling to find reliable host locations. Insurance costs for major events continue to rise. Venues are investing heavily in cooling, resilience and adaptation, often without clear returns.

Alongside climate pressure sits a quieter risk. Participation is falling in many markets. Fewer children play organised sport. Physical inactivity is rising. Over time, this erodes the base of fans, athletes and consumers that the industry depends on.

For chief financial officers and boards, this changes the conversation. Long-term forecasts now include climate feasibility and participation data. Investors are asking harder questions about whether traditional calendars and asset models can hold.

The implication is clear. Sport’s financial future is tied to its physical future. Those who plan for resilience, rather than assuming continuity, will be better placed to protect value and build it.